第2章 欢迎来到太阳系 Welcome to the Solar System · 第6讲S3

1. 老师，讲稿里反复提到 'divide A by B'，这到底是 A 除以 B 还是 B 除以 A 呀？我怕考试的时候搞反了。
2. 这里有个词叫 'conservative inputs'，老师能不能举个具体的例子，说明在德雷克方程里哪些参数如果设得比较 '保守'（往小了估），会对最后的结果产生啥影响？
3. 讲稿最后提到了一个 '山寨版' 或者 '恶搞版' 的 Drake's equation，这跟原版在计算逻辑或者目的上到底有啥主要区别？
4. 为什么讲稿里说，即使我们用的全是 '最保守' 的估计值，算出来的银河系文明数量还是高达 'millions'（百万）？这背后的逻辑是啥？
5. 最后老师问 'Is the author's interpretation of Drake's equation correct?'，如果让我去判断作者的理解对不对，我应该从哪些角度去分析才靠谱？

1. Teacher, the transcript keeps saying 'divide A by B'. Does this mean A divided by B, or B divided by A? I'm afraid I might mix them up in the exam.
2. Could you give me a specific example of 'conservative inputs'? In the context of the Drake Equation, which parameters, if set conservatively (estimated low), would significantly affect the final result?
3. The transcript mentions a 'knock-off' or 'spoof' version of the Drake's equation at the end. What are the main differences between this parody and the original version in terms of calculation logic or purpose?
4. Why does the transcript say that even using the 'most conservative' estimates, the calculated number of civilizations in the Milky Way is still in the 'millions'? What is the logic behind this?
5. Finally, the teacher asks, 'Is the author's interpretation of Drake's equation correct?' If I were to judge whether the author's understanding is correct, what angles or criteria should I use for a reliable analysis?

1 00:00:06,350 --> 00:00:07,350 Under Drake's equation, 2 00:00:07,750 --> 00:00:11,010 you divide the number of stars in a selected portion of 3 00:00:11,010 --> 00:00:14,350 the universe by the number of stars that are likely to 4 00:00:14,350 --> 00:00:17,290 have planetary resistance.Portion means part, 5 00:00:17,510 --> 00:00:19,470 a selected part of the universe, 6 00:00:19,770 --> 00:00:21,450 let's say it's the Milky Way, 7 00:00:21,570 --> 00:00:25,310 我们假定这个选定的区域就是银河系。 8 00:00:25,310 --> 00:00:30,770 Then under Drake's equation 根据 Drake 的方程式 You 9 00:00:30,770 --> 00:00:34,350 divide the number of stars in the Milky Way by the number 10 00:00:34,350 --> 00:00:37,090 of stars that are likely to have planetary systems 11 00:00:37,090 --> 00:00:42,630 Divide a number by another number 这是除 12 00:00:42,700 --> 00:00:48,180 法的关系看一下到底是什么除以什么 If you divide 21 13 00:00:48,180 --> 00:00:49,100 by 3, 14 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:57,220 you get 7 从这个例子大家可以看出 divide 21 by 3 是指把 15 00:00:57,220 --> 00:01:04,440 21 分成三份也就是 21 除以 3 you get 7 那么这里被 16 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,080 除数就是 the number of stars 17 00:01:08,250 --> 00:01:14,310 恒星总数在一定范围内的恒星总数我们就设想是银河 18 00:01:14,310 --> 00:01:18,210 系范围内的恒星总数那么除 19 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,820 数是 the number of stars that are likely to have 20 00:01:21,820 --> 00:01:29,340 planetary systems 有可能拥有行星系的恒星数目然后 21 00:01:30,180 --> 00:01:35,380 divide that by the number of planetary systems that 22 00:01:35,380 --> 00:01:39,540 could theoretically support life that 23 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:46,840 指的就是前面相处以后得出的那个商也就是把这个商 24 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:48,260 再除以 25 00:02:02,740 --> 00:02:10,560 再把前面的商除以这个数这个数就是 on which life 在 26 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:15,780 前面说的那个行星上生命已经出现了 Having arisen 27 00:02:15,780 --> 00:02:20,080 Arisen means appeared Having appeared Advances to a 28 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:26,580 state of intelligence 进化到了智慧的程度也就是有 29 00:02:26,580 --> 00:02:33,630 智慧生命存在的星球的数量除以这个数量 and so on 如 30 00:02:33,630 --> 00:02:39,360 此等等就这样一直除下去 At each such division 31 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:44,740 Division 就是前面 Divide 名词每 32 00:02:44,870 --> 00:02:49,270 次做一下这种除法 The number shrinks closely 33 00:02:49,830 --> 00:02:54,190 这个数字就会急剧地下降 Closely, 34 00:02:54,350 --> 00:02:58,080 closely means greatly Yet, 35 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:02,560 even with the most conservative inputs the number of 36 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:03,520 advanced civilizations 37 00:03:04,060 --> 00:03:08,140 just in the Milky Wayalways works out to be somewhere in 38 00:03:08,140 --> 00:03:12,580 the millions Conservative means means tending to be 39 00:03:12,580 --> 00:03:14,080 moderate or cautious 40 00:03:14,780 --> 00:03:16,960 就是比较保守的 41 00:03:17,540 --> 00:03:20,800 比如说保守的估计 a conservative estimate 42 00:03:21,500 --> 00:03:24,680 不敢估计太多数字都往小里说 43 00:03:25,300 --> 00:03:26,160 就算是 44 00:03:27,020 --> 00:03:32,380 非常保守的 inputs inputs 本意是输入 45 00:03:32,980 --> 00:03:35,440 也就是我们前面说的这些数字 46 00:03:36,500 --> 00:03:37,020 如果 47 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:43,620 我们选一些最保守的数字放进去把它带进到这个公式 48 00:03:43,620 --> 00:03:45,420 里面去算的话 The 49 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,880 number of advanced civilizations just in the Milky Way 50 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,080 仅仅是银河系中的 51 00:03:51,270 --> 00:03:56,210 先进的文明智慧的生命存在的这个 52 00:03:56,210 --> 00:04:00,600 civilizationsalways works out to be somewhere in the 53 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:00,960 millions 54 00:04:01,700 --> 00:04:07,020 最后算出来总是有几百万之众 Now 55 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:10,620 this is Drake's famous equation 56 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:26,840 一 57 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,620 步一步首先是恒 58 00:04:30,870 --> 00:04:37,690 星的总数然后把它乘以恒星中拥有行星的百分比就是 59 00:04:37,690 --> 00:04:44,010 有这么多的恒星中有百分之几的恒星能够拥有行星体 60 00:04:44,010 --> 00:04:44,470 系呢 61 00:04:45,170 --> 00:04:52,150 然后再足以相乘底下都是百分比最后可以得出一个 N 62 00:04:52,150 --> 00:04:54,590 Number of Communicative Civilizations 63 00:04:55,990 --> 00:04:59,450 就是宇宙间或者说一定范围之内 64 00:05:00,050 --> 00:05:05,030 拥有高等生命的高等文明的数量 On 65 00:05:05,860 --> 00:05:09,640 a website you can actually input these values and then 66 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:10,920 click the calculate button 67 00:05:26,100 --> 00:05:32,020 这是德瑞克的方程式的山寨版或者说恶搞版给我的成 68 00:05:32,020 --> 00:05:34,360 人学员们娱乐一下吧那 69 00:05:34,710 --> 00:05:40,810 接下去大家要观看一个影片里边是 Drake 本人解释自 70 00:05:40,810 --> 00:05:43,420 己的方程式那 Here we go 71 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:57,600 我能够预测到我们的星球中有多少细胞我发现这种细 72 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:02,560 胞的数量根据了七个因素你甚至可以用这些因素来形 73 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,560 成一个规则所以我做了这就成为了这个会议的目标 74 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,180 这就是为何这七个因素成为了德雷克规则 75 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,800 他计算出 The number of detectable, 76 00:06:14,900 --> 00:06:15,260 intelligent, 77 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:19,340 communicating civilizations in the galaxy to be based 78 00:06:19,340 --> 00:06:27,940 on the number of stars formed every yearmultiplied by 79 00:06:27,940 --> 00:06:34,530 the fraction of those stars with planetstimes the 80 00:06:34,530 --> 00:06:37,010 number of those planets per solar system with 81 00:06:37,010 --> 00:06:42,180 environments suitable for lifetimes the fraction of 82 00:06:42,180 --> 00:06:44,100 those planets on which life actually 83 00:06:44,100 --> 00:06:49,720 appearsmultiplied by the fraction of those life 84 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,160 bearing planets on which intelligence arises 85 00:06:57,340 --> 00:07:01,000 并发挥了一个想要通过的意欲并 86 00:07:02,950 --> 00:07:09,810 增加了他们继续传输到宇宙中的知识信息因此, 87 00:07:11,580 --> 00:07:15,520 与德雷克规则在一起 Frank 和他的同事可以开始注册 88 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:24,710 数据并第一次在星球中计算知识文化数据的数量你能 89 00:07:28,010 --> 00:07:31,530 把原来的 1961 年的数据放进这个规则吗 90 00:07:36,820 --> 00:07:37,620 一年以内 91 00:07:38,300 --> 00:07:43,960 星球的部分有星球我们从综合星球中得到的证据 92 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:46,240 大约是 0. 93 00:07:46,660 --> 00:07:54,500 5 当时我们认为如果星球比较大它就能够维持气候能 94 00:07:54,500 --> 00:07:57,920 够适合生命所以根据我们自己的系统就能够维持生命 95 00:07:58,180 --> 00:08:00,140 在研究室的化学试验中 96 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:05,680 提供一个星球在某 ……（后略，完整文稿见视频页字幕）